John S. Hollywood

Senior Operations Researcher

RAND Corporation

This presentation will discuss over one hundred completed and foiled plots against the US from 1999 on to better understand both how the terrorist threat has changed over time and how well we are countering those threats collectively. We found that the risk of catastrophic attacks has decreased over the past decade while the risk of sub-catastrophic attacks has grown somewhat. The role of law enforcement agencies and the general public has proved to be essential in preventing terrorism, with almost half of all plots being foiled through law enforcement discoveries and almost one quarter through reports from the public.

Session Learning Objectives:

1. Educate GovSec attendees on the actual magnitude and nature of the terror threat we face, based on examining data on US terror plots
2. Educate GovSec attendees on how we have foiled terror plots to date
3. Educate GovSec attendees on what has gone wrong when plots were successful, and what lessons we might learn